Concerns About Fairness of the Election Loom Large in South Dakota

The South Dakota Voter Survey was conducted in the first two weeks of October by The South Dakota Polling Project, a research group housed in the School of American and Global Studies at South Dakota State University. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%, on par with other state-wide polls.

The findings of The South Dakota Polling Project reveal that concerns about fairness of the coming presidential election loom large in the minds of many South Dakotans. Fair election and peaceful transition of governments constitute the corner stone of democratic governance. Candidates who lose the election acknowledge the results and give up power peacefully, which facilitates a smooth transition of political authority. If the process as well as fairness of an election would come into question, it could destabilize the system and perhaps even culminate in acts of political violence. The United States has always experienced peaceful transitions of power, and therefore the uncertainties that surround the present election are unprecedented in the country’s history.

South Dakotans Question the Integrity of Elections

Given an acerbic campaign, lingering concerns about the ability of the Postal Service to deliver a large amount of mail-in ballots, and the presence of a public health emergency, it is unsurprising that almost two-thirds of South Dakotans are concerned about the fairness of the election. The results also show that Republicans display a significantly stronger concern (78%) about the integrity of the upcoming election, compared to Democrats (44%) and Independents (61%). South Dakotans living in rural areas (71%) are also more likely than those living in small towns (64%) and urban areas (62%) to harbor doubts about whether the election will be conducted fairly and accurately. The survey results also reveal a large gap between South Dakotans who identify as evangelical Christians (80%) and the rest of the population (56%). In fact, evangelical Christians are the demographic group that displays the greatest concern about election integrity. It is likely that many born-again Christians in South Dakota are taking cues from national-level politicians, such as President Trump, who has repeatedly cast doubt on the fairness of the election and even suggested that he might not accept the electoral result.

Republicans are Concerned with Fraud and Security, whereas Democrats are Most Concerned with Complete Counts

While both Democrats and Republicans are concerned about the fairness of the upcoming election, they provide very different reasons. The results show that Democrats are concerned about the election fairness mostly because not all citizens that would like to vote will be able to (90%), there is a possibility that absentee ballots will not be counted properly (72%), and because the postal service might not deliver mail-in ballots on time (57%). While Republicans are also concerned about a possibility that absentee ballots will not be counted properly (61%), they are also skeptical whether mail-in voting is a secure way to vote (77%), and a vast majority believe that voter fraud is a significant concern (85%). It is also noteworthy that only 9% Democrats are concerned that mail-in voting is not a secure way to vote. On the other hand, while they worry that not everyone will be only able to vote looms large in the minds of South Dakota Democrats, Republicans seem unconcerned about this possibility (17%). These results illustrate the existence of a large partisan gap and a polarized electorate, which undermines the tradition of an orderly and peaceful transition of power. Given the unprecedented extent to which the coming election procedures have become politicized, the results of our poll show that both Democrats and Republicans in South Dakota are taking cues from their respective political leaders.

South Dakotans are Concerned That President Trump Might Not Leave if He Loses the Election

The results also reveal that South Dakotans are also worried about the aftermath of the election and a smooth transition of power in case of an incumbent loss. In particular, 30% of South Dakota voters are concerned that President Trump might not leave office willingly in case he loses the election. When we compare parties, half of Democrats are worried that President Trump might not leave office, which is a significantly greater number compared to independents (32%) and Republicans (26%). We also observe a significant gap along religious lines, with 37% of South Dakotans who do not identity as born-again Christians worried that President Trump might not leave office willingly, compared to only 17% born-again Christians. The fact that half of South Dakota Democrats worry that the President might not leave office willingly in case of an electoral defeat underscores the extent of political polarization in the state. Peaceful transition of power represents one of the pillars of democracy, and therefore the high number of South Dakotans who are concerned about the aftermath of the upcoming presidential election is fairly alarming.

South Dakotan Republicans Mixed on Whether Trump Should Leave Office if He Feels Election was Unfair

Our survey also asked participants to imagine a scenario where Joe Biden wins the electoral college, and to indicate whether or not Trump should leave office even if he believes the election was conducted unfairly. Given that Biden has been leading national polls, that Trump has repeatedly questioned the integrity of the vote, and that the president has hinted that he might stay in office regardless of the outcome, such a scenario is not unthinkable. The results show a large difference in opinion between groups on what President Trump should do in such a case. A majority of independents (72%) and Democrats (97%) believe that Trump should leave office regardless of the outcome compared to only 39% of South Dakota Republicans. Almost a third of Republicans (30%) indicated that even after losing the electoral college, Trump should stay in office and refuse to relinquish power. A significant gap also exists between born again Christians (41%) and the rest of the South Dakota population (76%) on whether the president should leave office in case of an electoral defeat. Also, 35% of born-again Christians believe that Trump should not leave office, which is the highest number among all demographic groups. Despite a commitment to a peaceful transfer of power from Republican and Democratic leadership in Congress, the opinion amongst Republican voters might embolden the president not to accept the results of the election in case Biden wins. These findings illustrate in a painful way how polarized the South Dakotan electorate has become, and the stress that this is putting on our faith in democratic institutions.

Contributors: Filip Viskupic Ph.D. and David Wiltse Ph.D.